Milei bets Argentina's future on oil riches, manufacturing collapses.

The most significant announcement of recent days did not come from markets or activity figures, but rather from a far-reaching institutional decision: the reform of the Central Bank's Charter that President Javier Milei presented tonight in a national broadcast, accompanied by Minister Luis Caputo and BCRA head Santiago Bausili. The bill, which will be sent to Congress, proposes to prohibit monetary financing of the Treasury, eliminate non-transferable letters, shield the autonomy of the Central Bank's authorities through a removal mechanism requiring two-thirds of both chambers, and introduce criminal penalties for officials who violate those principles. In Milei's own words, the objective is to put an end to "91 years of swindle." The reform aims to reverse the changes introduced in 2012, when Kirchnerism expanded the BCRA's mandate to include employment and economic development with social equity. If it prospers in Congress — where the ruling coalition is confident it has the necessary votes — it would be the most profound institutional transformation of Argentina's monetary framework since Convertibility.

The initiative arrives amid a foreign exchange context that, far from trivial, is loaded with contradictory signals. The wholesale dollar closed around $1,496, slightly below the psychological threshold of $1,500 that the Central Bank strategically defended in the days leading up to the maturity of a dollar-linked bond. The BCRA resumed foreign currency purchases of $36 million on Wednesday, after breaking a 135-consecutive-session streak of net buying on the previous Tuesday, when private-sector energy demand absorbed available supply. Gross international reserves reached $49.2 billion, the highest level since July 7, also boosted by gold's appreciation. At the same time, the blue-chip dollar held at $1,570 for selling, accumulating a 3.6% rise in July, while the retail exchange rate at Banco Nación slipped slightly to $1,515.

The external backdrop complicated Argentina's week considerably. The Federal Reserve held rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, but three of its twelve members voted for an immediate hike, and its chair, Kevin Warsh, made clear that the pause does not mean the end of the restrictive cycle. That signal hit global markets squarely: the Dow Jones fell 2.2%, the Nasdaq lost 1.7% and the S&P 500 retreated 1.5%. Argentine assets were no exception. The S&P Merval yielded 0.7% in pesos and dollar-denominated sovereign bonds fell an average of 0.3%, pushing country risk up to 445 basis points, far from the 400 threshold that seemed achievable barely two months ago. Weakness in Wall Street's tech sector — with quarterly results that, except for Microsoft, disappointed expectations — and oil geopolitics, with Brent oscillating between $82 and $90 per barrel after the resumption of attacks between the United States and Iran, added pressure on emerging market assets in general. In this context, Globant, whose shares trade on the NYSE under the symbol GLOB, was the notable exception: it accumulated a rise of close to 25% over five sessions, closing Wednesday at $38.14, in a rebound the market attributed to its repositioning around generative artificial intelligence.

On the fiscal and debt front, the Government took advantage of Wednesday's session to hold a well-received auction. The Finance Secretariat awarded instruments worth $12.21 trillion against maturities of $8.5 trillion, achieving a rollover of 144.5% and thus absorbing liquidity from the market. The debut of the new dual bond — which adjusts by either the TAMAR wholesale rate or the variation of the official dollar, paying the higher yield of the two options — captured $4.72 trillion, nearly 39% of the total placed, confirming that demand for exchange-rate hedging is growing as the 2027 electoral cycle approaches. In parallel, the Bonar 2029 in dollars placed an additional $309 million at a cutoff rate of 8.33% annually.

Behind these financial signals, however, lies a real economy advancing at radically different speeds depending on the sector. Agricultural activity marked a new historical record in June, with seasonally adjusted monthly growth of 3% according to the Rosario Board of Trade. Agro-industrial exports reached $27.447 billion in the first half, a historic high, and crude oil became Argentina's leading export product for the first time, with revenues of $4.693 billion between January and June, 47.7% more than in the same period of 2025, displacing soybean meal. Vaca Muerta remains the axis of this transformation: Wim-Hein Pals of Robeco Institutional Asset Management, which manages $18 billion, revealed that he bought Argentine stocks for the first time in nearly a decade, motivated precisely by the energy surplus generated by the Neuquén formation. At the same time, Kristalina Georgieva's visit to Loma Campana alongside Caputo and Horacio Marín was explicit in its symbolism: the IMF needs Vaca Muerta to produce the dollars Argentina will use to honor a debt exceeding $57.7 billion, 34.6% of the entire active portfolio of the organization.

On the other side of that same economy, manufacturing industry again fell 1.8% year-on-year in June according to UIA, accumulating a 3% decline in the first half, and stands 10% below 2022 and 2023 levels. Gross domestic investment retreated 6.2% year-on-year in June according to consultancy OJF, accumulating a 7.6% contraction in the first half, with machinery and equipment — especially imported — as the main factor of decline. Sales of 0 km cars are on track to close July with a decline of between 28% and 30% year-on-year, and Ford confirmed a reduction in the line speed of its Ranger of approximately 17% starting in October, given the fall in regional demand. Credit, although expanded from its historical lows, faces a structural problem: private-sector delinquency reached 7.7% in May, nearly tripling the level of a year ago, and among retirees the irregularity index reached 11.4%, affecting more than 457,000 people. Nearly three million Argentines are in arrears with digital wallets, in many cases because they can no longer access the formal banking system.

Against this backdrop of divergence, economist Ricardo Arriazu — one of Milei's most listened-to advisors — warned in a BlackTORO webinar that trade opening rec