Boliviano plummets past Bs 11 as fifteen-year peg collapses.

The boliviano is no longer a fixed currency: with the dollar now trading above Bs 11 and climbing toward Bs 11.13, Bolivia is undergoing this week the most significant exchange-rate transformation of the past three decades, and the effects are spreading with a speed the government had not fully anticipated.

The decision to abandon the fixed exchange rate of Bs 6.96 per dollar, in place for fifteen years, was inevitable given the depletion of international reserves and the widening gap between the official and parallel markets. What surprises is not the reform itself, but the speed at which the boliviano has depreciated once set loose. According to El Deber, the flexible dollar reached Bs 11 in recent sessions and is already projected at Bs 11.13 for this Thursday, a level that Economy Minister José Gabriel Espinoza insists will stabilize "in the coming days" below that threshold. Evo Morales, from the opposition, has labeled the move a "disguised devaluation," while the de facto vice president of the business narrative, Samuel Doria Medina, sets a more realistic ceiling around Bs 12, dismissing the notion that it will reach Bs 15. The government itself acknowledges that 99.3% of loans are denominated in bolivianos, an argument it wields to contain financial panic — though in street markets, suppliers are already refusing bolivianos as a means of payment, according to Los Tiempos.

The currency pressure converges with an energy crisis of alarming magnitude. The diesel shortage has paralyzed 80% of interdepartmental buses, threatens 800,000 tons of soy in Santa Cruz, and jeopardizes the planting of the next agricultural season. The government attributes the shortage to logistical difficulties at the port of Arica, though the explanation fails to satisfy a productive sector that has watched how the blockades of recent months — 50 days that, according to Los Tiempos, caused 14 deaths and $2.7 billion in losses — already pushed the economy to the brink of collapse. Fexco 2026 generated $206 million in transactions, a sign of resilient commercial activity, but insufficient to offset the structural bleeding.

External debt has hit a historic record of $14.358 billion as of June, according to Banco Central de Bolivia data reported by El Deber and Los Tiempos. What makes this figure particularly unsettling is that Bolivia is now paying more abroad than it receives in new disbursements, a reversal of the net flow that marks an inflection point in fiscal sustainability. Fitch Ratings maintains its "negative" outlook on the country, though the Economy Ministry emphasizes that the agency upgraded the sovereign rating to "CCC" in recognition of the first stabilization measures taken by the Rodrigo Paz government. The IMF mission has resumed meetings with business leaders in parallel with talks with the executive, and the government confirms an agreement in the making with the organization aimed at sustaining reforms and achieving fiscal stability through 2029.

Against this backdrop, the Senate faces direct pressure from President Paz to approve the reformulated 2026 General State Budget. Approval is urgent not only as a political signal, but because the absence of an operative PGE blocks external credit lines and constrains the executive's room for maneuver. In parallel, the government advanced a national summit with business leaders, from which emerged a reactivation agenda that includes the creation of funds for small producers affected by blockades and the possibility of rescheduling debts for struggling borrowers. Industrialists, however, demand that the fuel subsidy not be restored and warn that the blockades, more than any exchange-rate policy, are the primary drag on economic activity.

The timber sector offers an illustration of the frictions this environment generates. A false alarm about the presence of controlled substances in Bolivian trucks in Chile and Brazil paralyzed exports for days, caused millions in losses, and triggered a diplomatic dispute: exporters are demanding compensation from the Chilean prosecutor and accuse him of having orchestrated a "media show." The trucks were released after the presence of illicit substances was ruled out, but the episode exposes the fragility of Bolivian export chains at a moment when the country urgently needs foreign currency. Wheat production, meanwhile, has fallen to its lowest level in thirty years, according to the Asociación de Productores de Oleaginosas (Anapo), which is calling for a national plan to revive the crop.

A side note that reflects the state of the government apparatus: the swearing-in of the new manager of Boliviana de Aviación (BoA), Estanislao Finfera, took place aboard an aircraft in mid-flight, in front of passengers. The anecdote would be quaint if it did not inadvertently capture the theatricality with which the Bolivian state manages its public enterprises, which, according to a Los Tiempos investigation, have accumulated losses of Bs 4.058 billion over sixteen years. The future of those companies, eight months into the new government's tenure, remains undefined.

In the coming weeks, markets and analysts will watch three variables closely: the trajectory of the exchange rate and whether the executive manages to stabilize it within the promised range of less than Bs 11; progress in negotiations with the IMF and the eventual formal announcement of a support program; and Senate approval of the 2026 PGE, which will serve as a thermometer of the political cohesion of the Paz government against an opposition that watches every move with increasing aggressiveness. Country risk at 485 basis points and Fitch's CCC rating indicate that Bolivia remains in high-financial-tension territory, though access to sovereign bonds of $1 billion in international markets and the IDB's commitment of up to $4.5 billion suggest that the international financial community still considers the stabilization process viable, provided the executive maintains the fiscal discipline it has pledged.

**Boliviana de Aviación – BoA (state-owned company)** — Estanislao Finfera was sworn in as the new general manager of the Bolivian flag carrier in a ceremony held aboard an aircraft in flight, in front of passengers. The appointment comes as the future of Bolivia's state-owned enterprises remains formally undefined after eight months of the Paz government.

**Banco Económico (Bolivia, not internationally listed)** — The institution marked 35 years of operations, consolidating itself as one of the main players in the Bolivian financial system, at a time when banking sector profits have fallen 58% due to loan deferrals and the financial repression of the previous era. The bank operates in a market where microcredit already accounts for 31% of the system's total loan portfolio.