Inflação cede, mas banco público brasileiro enfrenta colapso silencioso.

June's IPCA came in below expectations — and Brazil's financial markets wasted no time recalibrating their bets on monetary policy.

The Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) released an inflation reading that eased pressure on consumers last month, surprising analysts and immediately reigniting the debate over the Selic's trajectory. According to Leonardo Costa of ASA, the print raises the probability of further monetary easing at the Copom meeting scheduled for August — a prospect that, until just a few days ago, most of the market was treating with caution. Felipe Guerra of Legacy Capital has already moved with conviction: he has built receiver positions on Brazilian rates, betting on lower yields. The move is significant. A well-behaved IPCA, combined with still-elevated risk premia on the long end of the curve, opens a window for spread compression that could benefit both private credit and inflation-linked government bonds.

The improved inflation mood, however, stands in contrast to a quiet crisis brewing in the backstage of the financial system. Banco de Brasília (BRB) has now gone a full year without disclosing financial results — its last public balance sheet dates back to the second quarter of 2025 — and is drawing dangerously close to the deadline imposed by the Central Bank to resolve the capital crisis triggered by the Banco Master scandal. In February, BRB submitted a 180-day capital replenishment plan to the Central Bank, which expires on August 5. The expectation of releasing the consolidated 2025 balance sheet on June 30 was not met. The necessary provisioning is estimated at R$8.8 billion, and the Federal District, which controls the institution, does not have the cash on hand for the injection. The solution hinges on a syndicate of banks and the Fundo Garantidor de Créditos, but market sources believe both the bank and the district government have been moving the pieces at a pace incompatible with the urgency of the situation. The DF's Secretariat of Economy claims to be ready to sign the contract, blaming the delay on procedural steps at the financial institutions involved. With the deadline closing in, the risk of tougher regulatory intervention cannot be ruled out.

On the regulatory front, the Ministry of Finance announced concrete action in the sports betting market that lays bare the scale of the problem the government has identified: 2.8 million beneficiaries of Bolsa Família and the Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) have had their access to betting platforms blocked. The figure represents 10.4% of the universe of 27 million recipients of the two social programs — and 11.2% of the 25 million Brazilians who tried to place a bet at least once in 2025. The measure complies with a Supreme Court ruling and operates through the Sistema de Gestão de Apostas (Sigap), run by Serpro, which allows betting houses to verify, by CPF, whether a user is a recipient of social transfers. The scale of the block is telling: nearly three million people dependent on state-assisted income were actively registered on betting platforms. More than 925,000 citizens have also used the centralized self-exclusion mechanism. The episode adds weight to the debate over regulation of the sector and its distributive effects, at a moment when the government is trying to balance the preservation of low-income households' purchasing power — a narrative that June's IPCA itself helps sustain — with fiscal restraint.

In the real economy, two sectoral signals deserve attention. The global rise of GLP-1 analog drugs — the so-called weight-loss pens — has begun producing measurable effects in Brazil's food supplements and vitamins market. One manufacturer in the sector projects revenue of up to R$430 million in 2026, anchored precisely in this demand induced by the new weight-loss therapies: patients on GLP-1 tend to significantly reduce caloric intake, creating a clinical need for nutritional replenishment. It is a dynamic that mirrors what has already been observed in the U.S. and European markets, where sports nutrition and preventive health companies have adjusted their portfolios to the new profile of the pharmacologically treated consumer. At the same time, Prati-Donaduzzi, a pharmaceutical laboratory with a well-established presence in the generics segment, is announcing its entry into the rapid testing market — a move that expands its footprint into diagnostics, diversifying revenues in a segment with structural demand.

For the week ahead, market eyes will be fixed on two points: the progress of BRB's negotiations with the FGC and the syndicate of banks before the August 5 deadline, and any further signal from Copom on the pace of the easing cycle. June's IPCA has given the Central Bank room to maneuver. What it does with that room will be the central theme of the coming weeks.

**BRB — Banco de Brasília** — The Federal District's public bank has completed a full year without disclosing financial results and is closing in on the August 5 deadline imposed by the Central Bank for the R$8.8 billion capital replenishment stemming from the Banco Master scandal. The lack of accounting transparency and the district government's slowness in mobilizing resources raise the risk of regulatory intervention before the deadline expires.

**Prati-Donaduzzi** — The Brazilian pharmaceutical laboratory, a benchmark in the generics market, is announcing an expansion into the rapid diagnostic testing segment, diversifying its revenue base beyond drug manufacturing.